***DISCLAIMER: None of the statements are at all based in fact, instead pure theory and conjecture meant to break the writer's block and get our writers to start writing again. Read the following at your own risk. OneTakeSports editor out.***
This time of year is dominated with Playoff chatter. Tim Duncan is playing like he's a decade younger, some teams are choking (see, Blazers, Mavericks, and Raptors), some teams are dominant as everyone expected (Golden State) and others are occasional juggernauts (Wizards in game 2). You have Cinderella stories that everyone wants to win (Boston's improbable run), and teams that everyone wants to see lose but still are not (Rockets and Cavaliers).
This time of year is dominated with Playoff chatter. Tim Duncan is playing like he's a decade younger, some teams are choking (see, Blazers, Mavericks, and Raptors), some teams are dominant as everyone expected (Golden State) and others are occasional juggernauts (Wizards in game 2). You have Cinderella stories that everyone wants to win (Boston's improbable run), and teams that everyone wants to see lose but still are not (Rockets and Cavaliers).
So when half of the basketball world stops to talk about a team that didn't make the playoffs, something huge must have happened. Sure enough, the Oklahoma City Thunder firing Scott Brooks falls into that category. Every media outlet has exploded with reasons why it was deserved, why teams shouldn't move on from coaches so quickly in today's results-now version of the NBA. People are talking about replacements, for my money PLEASE hire Alvin Gentry even if its only for the final year of Durant's contract. He has had marginal success, but he learned the 7-second offense in Phoenix and is often credited with the Warriors offensive flow this season. Anyway, back to Brooks. The other thing those media pundits love talking about is landing spots for him, but what nobody seems to realize is how immense the probability is that the organization is throwing in the towel on resigning their superstars past this season.
Everybody is wondering who can manage to replace Brooks, longtime friend and mentor to Durant and Westbrook. How can the Thunder hire someone capable of regaining that trust and having enough success to convince Westbrook and Durant to stay after next season? It's simple, they can't. There are so many factors here, starting with the timing. With only a year, and both players saying that they want a championship, the Thunder need to hire a coach who will have the same success in his first year as Steve Kerr this year. Not only that, but because regular season wins apparently mean very little to the top brass (Brooks went 60-22 and made it to the finals in 2012 and 59-23 the year after the decision makers decided not to resign James Harden), but both times fell short of a trophy. Once was due to his failings as a coach and the other due to injury to Westbrook. Grantland just ran a a great article on those particular failings recently, please go check it out as they go far deeper into that discussion then I want to with this particular piece. This past season, Brooks was still successful in my mind. He lost his true marquee player to a chronic injury, and Westbrook had to completely take over his offense and then take over the league as he turned into an unstoppable force of nature recording a triple double in every single game he played in this year (slight exaggeration, but Westbrook was all over the place). So the next coach not only has to replicate that success, but expand on it and turn it into postseason wins with an even weaker roster. In one season. That's damn near impossible unless they pull the coup of the century and convince Popovitch that OCK could be his magnum opus.
The next factor is the players themselves, which is really the point here. Recalling back to those 2012 finals, the offense was ridiculously basic. Westbrook would get a screen or isolation on one side of the court, attack, if it didn't work, he'd give it to Durant on the other side of the court like, “Here, it's your turn now.” Durant would catch and shoot, isolate, or attack a screen and it was just rinse, wash, and repeat. Teams figured out how to stop that pretty fast. At least with James Harden and Thabo Sefolosha they had an outside shooter to kick it to, with the lack of floor spacing currently on this Thunder roster drive and kicks are significantly less effective. Heading into 2015-16, Westbrook has shown what he can be with the ball in his hands. We all know what Durant can be with the ball in his hands, but what we basically haven't seen for ages is them playing with one another. In fact, Durant's MVP year Westbrook played about half the season's games. Westbrook's MVP caliber season this year occurred with Durant playing 27 games. Westbrook can average a triple double, but he needs a complete carte blanche to do that. Giving Westbrook the ultimate green light means Durant does not have the ball, turning him into a space out shooter. Not the ideal role for a former MVP still in his prime, especially if that guy is in a contract year. He needs to dominate and have success at in this environment, create an atmosphere for that success.
So let's say hypothetically that the new coach lets Durant be ball dominant again, taking off Westbrook's green light. “No Russ, you can't shoot 40 field goals to get 40 points today.” Westbrook is in the final year of his contract as well, which means the same thing for him as it did for Durant, said hypothetical coach wants him to succeed in this environment, in his contract year in order for him to want to resign past this season. You don't want to make Russ mad. Which means the new coach has to not only find a way to let Durant dominate the ball, but let Westbrook dominate the ball as well, give them both complete green lights, AND win a championship with Enes Kanter, Dion Waiters, and Perry Jones III. Not happening in this universe. So said coach needs to piss someone off and take away their basketball if HE wants to keep his job.
No matter who it is, if one leaves, the other will quickly follow suit. Let's say it's Westbrook because Durant is the more efficient scorer. So Westbrook leaves and joins Kobe and Kevin Love in Los Angeles (per Jalen Rose). There is no chance Durant sticks around in OKC as the only superstar on a small market team, proven unwilling to go over the cap to win a championship (see: Harden, James). He might love it there, but championships are so huge in the NBA and KD still does not have one. It's the difference in endorsements between Melo and LeBron, Kobe and Tracy McGrady. But guess what? I'm just a guy sitting at a desk coming up with all of this, I guarantee that the OKC organization is ten steps ahead, already seeing one guy leaving, the other escapes the small market dumpster fire and leaves Dion Waiters and Enes Kanter and Serge iBlockya to hold onto the 10 seed for the next 3 years while the GM trades players for picks trying to copy the Boston Celtics, banking on potential to rise to the top in hopes for a future championship a decade from now. Here's to hoping Cleveland decides to trade away the future of their franchise again.
Everybody is wondering who can manage to replace Brooks, longtime friend and mentor to Durant and Westbrook. How can the Thunder hire someone capable of regaining that trust and having enough success to convince Westbrook and Durant to stay after next season? It's simple, they can't. There are so many factors here, starting with the timing. With only a year, and both players saying that they want a championship, the Thunder need to hire a coach who will have the same success in his first year as Steve Kerr this year. Not only that, but because regular season wins apparently mean very little to the top brass (Brooks went 60-22 and made it to the finals in 2012 and 59-23 the year after the decision makers decided not to resign James Harden), but both times fell short of a trophy. Once was due to his failings as a coach and the other due to injury to Westbrook. Grantland just ran a a great article on those particular failings recently, please go check it out as they go far deeper into that discussion then I want to with this particular piece. This past season, Brooks was still successful in my mind. He lost his true marquee player to a chronic injury, and Westbrook had to completely take over his offense and then take over the league as he turned into an unstoppable force of nature recording a triple double in every single game he played in this year (slight exaggeration, but Westbrook was all over the place). So the next coach not only has to replicate that success, but expand on it and turn it into postseason wins with an even weaker roster. In one season. That's damn near impossible unless they pull the coup of the century and convince Popovitch that OCK could be his magnum opus.
The next factor is the players themselves, which is really the point here. Recalling back to those 2012 finals, the offense was ridiculously basic. Westbrook would get a screen or isolation on one side of the court, attack, if it didn't work, he'd give it to Durant on the other side of the court like, “Here, it's your turn now.” Durant would catch and shoot, isolate, or attack a screen and it was just rinse, wash, and repeat. Teams figured out how to stop that pretty fast. At least with James Harden and Thabo Sefolosha they had an outside shooter to kick it to, with the lack of floor spacing currently on this Thunder roster drive and kicks are significantly less effective. Heading into 2015-16, Westbrook has shown what he can be with the ball in his hands. We all know what Durant can be with the ball in his hands, but what we basically haven't seen for ages is them playing with one another. In fact, Durant's MVP year Westbrook played about half the season's games. Westbrook's MVP caliber season this year occurred with Durant playing 27 games. Westbrook can average a triple double, but he needs a complete carte blanche to do that. Giving Westbrook the ultimate green light means Durant does not have the ball, turning him into a space out shooter. Not the ideal role for a former MVP still in his prime, especially if that guy is in a contract year. He needs to dominate and have success at in this environment, create an atmosphere for that success.
So let's say hypothetically that the new coach lets Durant be ball dominant again, taking off Westbrook's green light. “No Russ, you can't shoot 40 field goals to get 40 points today.” Westbrook is in the final year of his contract as well, which means the same thing for him as it did for Durant, said hypothetical coach wants him to succeed in this environment, in his contract year in order for him to want to resign past this season. You don't want to make Russ mad. Which means the new coach has to not only find a way to let Durant dominate the ball, but let Westbrook dominate the ball as well, give them both complete green lights, AND win a championship with Enes Kanter, Dion Waiters, and Perry Jones III. Not happening in this universe. So said coach needs to piss someone off and take away their basketball if HE wants to keep his job.
No matter who it is, if one leaves, the other will quickly follow suit. Let's say it's Westbrook because Durant is the more efficient scorer. So Westbrook leaves and joins Kobe and Kevin Love in Los Angeles (per Jalen Rose). There is no chance Durant sticks around in OKC as the only superstar on a small market team, proven unwilling to go over the cap to win a championship (see: Harden, James). He might love it there, but championships are so huge in the NBA and KD still does not have one. It's the difference in endorsements between Melo and LeBron, Kobe and Tracy McGrady. But guess what? I'm just a guy sitting at a desk coming up with all of this, I guarantee that the OKC organization is ten steps ahead, already seeing one guy leaving, the other escapes the small market dumpster fire and leaves Dion Waiters and Enes Kanter and Serge iBlockya to hold onto the 10 seed for the next 3 years while the GM trades players for picks trying to copy the Boston Celtics, banking on potential to rise to the top in hopes for a future championship a decade from now. Here's to hoping Cleveland decides to trade away the future of their franchise again.