by John Levasseur
There is a wind of change in the NBA today. Versatility is becoming more and more valued, running the floor with bigs who can shoot as opposed to bangers underneath is a practice taking over the league. Few offenses are even running plays for those big guys underneath, unless they happen to possess one of the top players in the game like a Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson or Jokim Noah. The mixing of positions has become so proliferated in fact, that the all-star game ballot has eliminated the center position. This is in large part because more and more players are expected to be able to play like a point guard, reducing turnovers and running an efficient offense taking and making good shots. In fact, it is becoming a popular practice to run two point guards on the court at the same time.
There is a wind of change in the NBA today. Versatility is becoming more and more valued, running the floor with bigs who can shoot as opposed to bangers underneath is a practice taking over the league. Few offenses are even running plays for those big guys underneath, unless they happen to possess one of the top players in the game like a Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson or Jokim Noah. The mixing of positions has become so proliferated in fact, that the all-star game ballot has eliminated the center position. This is in large part because more and more players are expected to be able to play like a point guard, reducing turnovers and running an efficient offense taking and making good shots. In fact, it is becoming a popular practice to run two point guards on the court at the same time.
But why would teams go this route, instead of opting for size and pure scoring ability with a true shooting guard running with a true distributor? There are a lot of factors that go into this. What this allows an offense to do is generate a more efficient offense because they have two game managers out on the floor at the same time. Another huge advantage is that some defenses will key on getting the ball out of the point guard's hands, believing that it will hamper an offenses ability to run smoothly. Teams like Houston and Miami from last year both had off ball distributors that allowed them to cope with that style of defense, and the Bulls had a center who could pass very well for a big man which allowed them to accommodate for losing Derrick Rose. Finally, you have the added bonus of getting into an offense quicker. With the 24 second shot clock, and subtracting the 5-6 second it takes to cross the halfcourt, that leaves less then 20 seconds to generate a good opportunity. Being able to establish a set and get into it quickly is of vital importance to a truly successful team.
Teams that run this type of system need to understand how to use their lineups though. You can't just trot out two pass-first guards with low three point percentages and expect to win, otherwise there wouldn't be enough aggression, or you would be required to play guys like Monta Ellis or JR Smith who would be correctly labeled 'gunners' and you would have one initial pass to that player and they would shoot. At a high percentage, that sounds great, but it rarely is with volume shooters. So your guards still need to be able to score and pass, which leads to the desire for combo guards on the roster. Guys like Jeff Teague in Atlanta, or Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City are in high demand. Obviously their skills are top notch, but the mold is what teams desire. Atlanta from the 2012-2013 season had a good rotation with Jeff Teague and Devin Harris running together at the same time, a lineup which had a combined NetRTG of 9.8 when on the floor at the same time (Article can be referenced here). This isn't the only team that saw benefits from playing such a lineup, the Miami Heat saw a combined NetRTG of an incredible 24.2 when playing a lineup with Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers at the same time (To read more about the Miami Heat situation, click here). As a Rockets fan, I know our team looked the most fluid with Patrick Beverley and Jeremy Lin on the floor at the same time last year.
It has long been believed that teams with two point guards would suffer defensive struggles, which caused most teams to shy away from using them together, but the statistics don't always bear that out. The afore-mentioned Hawks saw an increase in defensive efficiency with Teague and Harris on the floor at the same time, and the Phoenix Suns from last year (running Dragic and Bledsoe) saw an improved defensive rating as well in their 2 point guard set. The cause for this is that size has less of an impact on perimeter play then anticipated because those smaller guards can pester and swarm their larger opponents. Obviously, some situations lend themselves towards the defense getting beat, like James Harden posting up Dragic. However, playing two point guards who can also score in different ways allows you to do some impressive things.
In researching this article, I discovered a website that drew my full attention as an NBA stats junky. Wages of wins (wagesofwins.com) is an incredibly well thought out and valuable resource, and I have only scratched the surface of the information they provide. They popped up in my searches because they have a fantastic two-part article on lineup efficiency, I would like to take a minute and see how that associates to the current NBA climate with the fascenation of running a dual PG set.
Basically, they broke down the wins produced by each position group in the league, if you want the details I very much suggest heading over to their site, but centers and point guards were the most productive. It makes sense then, to play with as many of these types of players as possible. Obviously, 5 centers would be a liability from a shooting perspective as well as a ball handling perspective. The shooting aspect cannot be understated either, as it would allow a defense to protect only the lane. It has worked though, the Houston Rockets of the 90s played two centers and were able to win a title using that lineup. However, they were unable to muster the strength necessary to beat the bulls. On the flip side, with nothing but guards, you get the desired shooting and spacing, as well as the ability to push the ball, but you lose rebounding. I guess if you shoot well enough, that's not really an issue, but at the end of the day you're still giving up a lot of size to a team that trots out a more traditional lineup.
The obvious answer for a team that wants to play 2 point guards, and still remain competitive, is to play with two point guards and bring a third high caliber guard off the bench. This allows for a team to start those two guards for efficiency, a true pair of forwards and a center, or simply two centers. Obviously, if you are going to run a two point guard lineup with a pair of forwards, you need athletic guys who can slash and shoot to fill those forward spots, and a true center who can play defense and get rebounds. Going with two centers, at least one of those centers would need to fill more of a Lamarcus Aldridge or Al Horford role and step away from the basket and shoot.
No team is embracing the two point guard lineup more then one of the teams I already mentioned, the Phoenix Suns, with their signing of Isiah Thomas. If they were to retain Bledsoe, they would have five point guards on the roster (Dragic, the rookie Tyler Ennis and Archie Goodwin are the others), three of which are absolutely starting caliber and have before in the league. They also fill the other qualifiers, Gerald Green and the Morris twins are all athletic forwards who can shoot, and Alex Len is a true 7' center in the NBA who is also athletic enough to run the floor with all those guards.
This team is truly embracing the future, and they will be very fun to watch. I am on record saying that I believe that this team is a good center away from being a competitive team in a strong western conference, and this upcoming season will be a perfect opportunity for stat heads and basketball purists to watch a specific team and judge the value of advanced metrics in the NBA.
Teams that run this type of system need to understand how to use their lineups though. You can't just trot out two pass-first guards with low three point percentages and expect to win, otherwise there wouldn't be enough aggression, or you would be required to play guys like Monta Ellis or JR Smith who would be correctly labeled 'gunners' and you would have one initial pass to that player and they would shoot. At a high percentage, that sounds great, but it rarely is with volume shooters. So your guards still need to be able to score and pass, which leads to the desire for combo guards on the roster. Guys like Jeff Teague in Atlanta, or Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City are in high demand. Obviously their skills are top notch, but the mold is what teams desire. Atlanta from the 2012-2013 season had a good rotation with Jeff Teague and Devin Harris running together at the same time, a lineup which had a combined NetRTG of 9.8 when on the floor at the same time (Article can be referenced here). This isn't the only team that saw benefits from playing such a lineup, the Miami Heat saw a combined NetRTG of an incredible 24.2 when playing a lineup with Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers at the same time (To read more about the Miami Heat situation, click here). As a Rockets fan, I know our team looked the most fluid with Patrick Beverley and Jeremy Lin on the floor at the same time last year.
It has long been believed that teams with two point guards would suffer defensive struggles, which caused most teams to shy away from using them together, but the statistics don't always bear that out. The afore-mentioned Hawks saw an increase in defensive efficiency with Teague and Harris on the floor at the same time, and the Phoenix Suns from last year (running Dragic and Bledsoe) saw an improved defensive rating as well in their 2 point guard set. The cause for this is that size has less of an impact on perimeter play then anticipated because those smaller guards can pester and swarm their larger opponents. Obviously, some situations lend themselves towards the defense getting beat, like James Harden posting up Dragic. However, playing two point guards who can also score in different ways allows you to do some impressive things.
In researching this article, I discovered a website that drew my full attention as an NBA stats junky. Wages of wins (wagesofwins.com) is an incredibly well thought out and valuable resource, and I have only scratched the surface of the information they provide. They popped up in my searches because they have a fantastic two-part article on lineup efficiency, I would like to take a minute and see how that associates to the current NBA climate with the fascenation of running a dual PG set.
Basically, they broke down the wins produced by each position group in the league, if you want the details I very much suggest heading over to their site, but centers and point guards were the most productive. It makes sense then, to play with as many of these types of players as possible. Obviously, 5 centers would be a liability from a shooting perspective as well as a ball handling perspective. The shooting aspect cannot be understated either, as it would allow a defense to protect only the lane. It has worked though, the Houston Rockets of the 90s played two centers and were able to win a title using that lineup. However, they were unable to muster the strength necessary to beat the bulls. On the flip side, with nothing but guards, you get the desired shooting and spacing, as well as the ability to push the ball, but you lose rebounding. I guess if you shoot well enough, that's not really an issue, but at the end of the day you're still giving up a lot of size to a team that trots out a more traditional lineup.
The obvious answer for a team that wants to play 2 point guards, and still remain competitive, is to play with two point guards and bring a third high caliber guard off the bench. This allows for a team to start those two guards for efficiency, a true pair of forwards and a center, or simply two centers. Obviously, if you are going to run a two point guard lineup with a pair of forwards, you need athletic guys who can slash and shoot to fill those forward spots, and a true center who can play defense and get rebounds. Going with two centers, at least one of those centers would need to fill more of a Lamarcus Aldridge or Al Horford role and step away from the basket and shoot.
No team is embracing the two point guard lineup more then one of the teams I already mentioned, the Phoenix Suns, with their signing of Isiah Thomas. If they were to retain Bledsoe, they would have five point guards on the roster (Dragic, the rookie Tyler Ennis and Archie Goodwin are the others), three of which are absolutely starting caliber and have before in the league. They also fill the other qualifiers, Gerald Green and the Morris twins are all athletic forwards who can shoot, and Alex Len is a true 7' center in the NBA who is also athletic enough to run the floor with all those guards.
This team is truly embracing the future, and they will be very fun to watch. I am on record saying that I believe that this team is a good center away from being a competitive team in a strong western conference, and this upcoming season will be a perfect opportunity for stat heads and basketball purists to watch a specific team and judge the value of advanced metrics in the NBA.